Preparation: Students should be familiar with basic graphing skills using Excel (if you choose the first option) and the concept of global warming. 

Engage: Ask: What do you know about global warming? What types of impacts have you heard about or seen? Show students photos of global change: melting glaciers, flooding, precipitation changes. Use the powerpoint titled “Climate Change” for images. If students have not had much background on the science of climate change, you can spend more time on this using the powerpoint. Ask: What types of changes might you expect in the Hudson Valley if temperatures continue to increase? Make a list on the board of student ideas. This can be done as a K-W-L chart or a conceptual circle if appropriate.

Explore: There are two options for this lesson, depending on whether you want your students to have more experience with graphing data. If this is not an objective for your class, use Option 2.

Option 1:Students use Excel to create graphs

1. Students graph annual air temperature data for Poughkeepsie using Excel. Graphing temperature should be done in Celsius to allow for comparisons. See “Hudson River Temperature without Graphs”.
2. Students read “What will climate change do to our planet?”, or go online to: http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/six-degrees-could-change-t... and answer the question about how the planet will change with an increase in temperature of 1-2 C.
3. After discussing the changes in air temperature, students should be encouraged to think about what this might mean for water temperature.
4. Students graph the deviation of the average temperature for each year from the long term average which sorts the data into years with above versus below average temperatures for the Hudson River. They then answer the questions based on this graph and data about aquatic organisms that is provided on “Using Data: Hudson River Temperature Worksheet”.
5. Students complete the worksheets using the graphs to look at changes in fish and frog species in the area.

Option 2: Students use pre-made graphs

1. Students use provided graphs to answer the same questions. See “Hudson River Temperature Worksheet with Graphs”.
2. Students read “What will climate change do to our planet?”, or go online to: http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/six-degrees-could-change-t... and answer the question about how the planet will change with an increase in temperature of 1-2 C.
3. After discussing the changes in air temperature, students should be encouraged to think about what this might mean for water temperature.
4. Using the same handout (“Hudson River Temperature Worksheet with Graphs”) as Option 2 above, students use the provided data to answer questions about the changes in the Hudson River.
5. Students complete the worksheets using the graphs to look at changes in fish and frog species in the area.

Lead a discussion with students based on the “Human Accelerated Environmental Change” diagram by Dr. Gene Likens. Ask students to talk about the ways in which human impacts can affect animal populations. Conduct research to construct a conceptual circle focusing on fish or amphibians.

Explain: According to data compiled and analyzed at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, the Hudson River has become warmer over the last 60 years. These were collected daily at the Poughkeepsie Water Treatment Facility, and three USGS survey sites (below Poughkeepsie [01372058], South Dock at West Point [01374019], and south of Hastings on Hudson [01376304]). These data were then averaged to create daily and monthly means.
Although no correlation studies have been done between the decrease in certain fish species and the increasing temperature of the Hudson River, it has been suggested by a number of scientists that this is a distinct possibility. In a paper by Daniels 2005, the tomcod’s temperature sensitivity is listed as a possible reason for its disappearance from the Hudson. Once found as far south as North Carolina, it is now rarely found even in the Hudson. Both Atlantic Tomcod and Rainbow smelt are at the southern portion of their range, requiring cold water for breeding. According to John Waldman, a biology professor at Queens College in New York who has long been involved in Hudson River issues, between 1996 and 2000, yearly sampling for smelt in the Hudson produced a total of 4 fish.
The data from the Gibbs, 2000 study shows a change in breeding times for a variety of local amphibians, many of whom are now starting their ‘calling’ up to two weeks earlier than one hundred years ago.
 

Extend: There are two other data sets for air temperature that students can try graphing, titled: “Student Maximum Air Temp Poughkeepsie” or “Student Minimum Air Temp Poughkeepsie”. Students could also graph more than one location in New York and compare the rate of change with different elevations. See: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/monthly.html . Graphing more than one location around the country over time and making comparisons would provide an additional activity extension. Students could also compare temperature graphs to CO2 level graphs (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/iadv , Global Monitoring Division Carbon Cycling Network) on a global basis.
 

Evaluate: Using the answers to the questions on the worksheets, students should be able to discuss the implications of climate change on some of the local organisms. Use these answers to assess student understanding. Encourage students to conduct further research into possible impacts including sea level rise, impacts on wetlands, the salt front in the river, and weather patterns that could impact drinking water.

References:
Daniels, R.A., K.E. Limburg, R.E. Schmidt, D.L. Strayer, and R.C. Chambers. 2005. Changes in Fish Assemblages in the Tidal Hudson River, New York. American Fisheries Society Symposium, 45:471-503.

Gibbs, J.P. and A.R. Breisch. 2000. Climate Warming and Calling Phenology of Frogs near Ithaca, New York, 1900-1999. Conservation Biology, 15:1175-1178.

Seaby, R.M.H. and P.A. Henderson. 2008. The Status of Fish Populations and the Ecology of the Hudson. Report by Pisces Conservation for the Riverkeeper.

Seekell, D.A., and M.L. Pace. Analysis of a Warming Trend in the Hudson River Estuary. Estuaries and Coasts (submitted ms.)

Williams, C.N., M.J. Menne, R.S. Vose, and D.R. Easterling. National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.