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Predicting Disease Outbreaks

Knowing where and when the next disease might break out is key to predicting and preempting the arrival of a new zoonotic disease – and saving lives.


Science for preventing the next pandemic

2.2 million/yr.

Deaths caused by 13 diseases that jump from animals to people.

Zoonotic diseases are on the rise.

Ebola, avian influenza, hantavirus, rabies – these are just a handful of the emerging infectious diseases that can be transmitted from animals to people, with devastating effects. Maintained within wildlife and livestock, these pathogens “spill over” to infect humans as a result of environmental, demographic, and cultural changes.

Cary is looking to predict the next outbreak before it happens.

Identifying animals that amplify disease. By developing computer algorithms that compare traits of known disease carriers with species not yet known to carry disease, we can predict which animals could become carriers.

Predicting & preventing the next pandemic. We are determining which combinations of species, pathogens, and environmental conditions give rise to disease outbreaks in order to predict when and where an infectious disease might emerge.

We are using AI + big data to protect human health.

The Cary Institute’s predictive models and forecasts help communities and public health officials take action to lessen disease risk or even stop an outbreak before it starts.

By partnering with collaborators at IBM, the World Health Organization, and the White House, we are advancing research on global disease forecasting and helping guide disease surveillance efforts for the most vulnerable communities.

More on predicting outbreaks